Pre-tourney Rankings
Big Ten
2011-12


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Ohio St. 100.0%   2   27 - 7 13 - 5 27 - 7 13 - 5 +20.0      +10.7 6 +9.3 3 71.1 90 +17.4 9 +16.6 3
3 Michigan St. 100.0%   1   26 - 7 13 - 5 26 - 7 13 - 5 +19.4      +8.6 17 +10.8 2 66.9 185 +18.0 7 +17.0 2
8 Indiana 100.0%   3   25 - 8 11 - 7 25 - 8 11 - 7 +15.3      +11.7 4 +3.6 73 71.4 82 +15.4 11 +13.5 5
12 Wisconsin 100.0%   4   24 - 9 12 - 6 24 - 9 12 - 6 +14.7      +5.9 37 +8.8 9 53.8 343 +14.6 14 +14.5 4
23 Michigan 100.0%   3   23 - 9 13 - 5 23 - 9 13 - 5 +12.5      +8.2 21 +4.2 62 58.4 326 +15.3 12 +17.3 1
30 Purdue 97.4%   9   21 - 12 10 - 8 21 - 12 10 - 8 +11.0      +9.2 14 +1.9 121 66.6 193 +10.9 35 +11.7 6
56 Minnesota 3.4%   19 - 14 6 - 12 19 - 14 6 - 12 +8.1      +3.8 74 +4.3 60 64.3 256 +8.0 63 +5.8 10
58 Northwestern 5.3%   18 - 13 8 - 10 18 - 13 8 - 10 +7.9      +8.8 15 -0.9 199 62.5 280 +9.2 47 +8.6 7
77 Illinois 3.4%   17 - 15 6 - 12 17 - 15 6 - 12 +6.6      +1.2 137 +5.4 29 65.3 230 +7.9 65 +6.1 9
91 Iowa 0.0%   17 - 16 8 - 10 17 - 16 8 - 10 +5.4      +5.5 46 -0.1 173 72.5 60 +6.3 81 +8.6 8
128 Penn St. 0.0%   12 - 20 4 - 14 12 - 20 4 - 14 +2.6      +0.3 162 +2.3 106 64.1 258 +2.1 141 +2.1 12
142 Nebraska 0.0%   12 - 18 4 - 14 12 - 18 4 - 14 +2.0      +1.1 138 +0.8 143 60.1 312 +3.5 122 +2.8 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Ohio St. 1.0 100.0
Michigan St. 1.0 100.0
Indiana 5.0 100.0
Wisconsin 4.0 100.0
Michigan 1.0 100.0
Purdue 6.0 100.0
Minnesota 9.0 100.0
Northwestern 7.0 100.0
Illinois 9.0 100.0
Iowa 7.0 100.0
Penn St. 11.0 100.0
Nebraska 11.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Ohio St. 13 - 5 100.0
Michigan St. 13 - 5 100.0
Indiana 11 - 7 100.0
Wisconsin 12 - 6 100.0
Michigan 13 - 5 100.0
Purdue 10 - 8 100.0
Minnesota 6 - 12 100.0
Northwestern 8 - 10 100.0
Illinois 6 - 12 100.0
Iowa 8 - 10 100.0
Penn St. 4 - 14 100.0
Nebraska 4 - 14 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Ohio St. 100.0% 100.0
Michigan St. 100.0% 100.0
Indiana
Wisconsin
Michigan 100.0% 100.0
Purdue
Minnesota
Northwestern
Illinois
Iowa
Penn St.
Nebraska


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Ohio St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2   36.1 56.3 7.6 0.1 100.0%
Michigan St. 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1   52.5 44.9 2.5 0.0
Indiana 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 3   0.4 5.6 55.3 33.5 5.2 0.1 100.0%
Wisconsin 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 4   0.1 2.0 35.6 46.2 15.4 0.8 0.0 100.0%
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 3   0.1 1.2 42.9 44.7 11.0 0.2 100.0%
Purdue 97.4% 0.0% 97.4% 9   0.2 1.9 7.7 30.4 38.0 17.2 2.1 0.1 2.6 97.4%
Minnesota 3.4% 0.0% 3.4% 0.3 2.1 0.9 0.0 96.6 3.4%
Northwestern 5.3% 0.0% 5.3% 0.0 1.1 3.1 1.0 94.7 5.3%
Illinois 3.4% 0.0% 3.4% 0.5 2.3 0.6 96.6 3.4%
Iowa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Ohio St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.1% 77.9% 58.6% 38.6% 24.5% 14.4%
Michigan St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.0% 76.0% 56.5% 36.1% 21.3% 11.6%
Indiana 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 77.3% 51.0% 24.2% 11.8% 5.2% 2.0%
Wisconsin 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 74.9% 46.7% 20.3% 9.4% 4.2% 1.6%
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 66.8% 36.3% 13.0% 4.8% 1.6% 0.4%
Purdue 97.4% 0.1% 97.4% 49.0% 13.4% 6.1% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
Minnesota 3.4% 3.2% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 5.3% 5.3% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois 3.4% 2.9% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iowa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.1 2.2 86.5 11.0 0.3
1st Round 100.0% 6.0 2.4 91.4 6.1 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 4.6 0.1 1.7 11.1 30.9 37.7 18.2 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 99.4% 3.0 0.6 6.7 23.8 36.5 24.4 7.4 0.6
Elite Eight 93.6% 1.8 6.5 31.3 42.1 17.3 2.6 0.2
Final Four 74.8% 1.0 25.2 49.6 22.6 2.7 0.0
Final Game 51.3% 0.6 48.7 45.1 6.2
Champion 30.2% 0.3 69.8 30.2